People still want to buy homes. What they don’t want is a payment that takes over their entire life. The latest housing numbers show just how much that matters: nationally, pending home sales fell 7.3% in September compared with August and 11.3% compared with a year earlier. These are signed contracts, not completed sales, so they tell us something about the business moving through the pipeline. Buyers are hesitating, and affordability deserves a big part of that conversation. [1]
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% on October 15. That’s a national benchmark, not a quote for your particular loan, but it helps explain why buyers are taking a breath before committing. A house can check every box until the monthly payment shows up. And honestly, being careful about that payment is a good thing. [2]
Why a Better Bond Market Doesn’t Immediately Fix Your Payment
The market update I reviewed showed the 10-year Treasury yield retreating from roughly 5.3% toward 5.1%, even after stronger inflation readings. That sounds backward, right? But investors react to several things at once, including inflation expectations, economic risks and demand for the relative safety of government bonds. One inflation headline doesn’t control the entire market. [3]
Here’s the distinction that matters: the 10-year Treasury yield is not your mortgage rate. The report also showed mortgage spreads, the gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, remaining elevated. That can limit how much relief reaches borrowers even when Treasury yields improve. I’m watching for sustained improvement, because a couple of better trading days don’t establish a lasting trend. [3]
Does Slower Activity Mean San Diego Home Prices Will Crash?
A decline in signed contracts tells us fewer deals are coming together. It does not, by itself, tell us homeowners are defaulting or that San Diego home prices are about to collapse. To make that argument, we would need to examine local inventory, closed-sale prices, mortgage delinquencies, foreclosure activity and employment together. A slow market and a distressed market are different conditions.
For buyers and sellers in Lakeside, Santee, El Cajon and La Mesa, national headlines are a starting point. Your neighborhood, price range, property condition and competing listings matter when we decide what a home is worth. My approach is to compare what has actually sold with what buyers can choose from today. That gives us something more useful than assuming every seller is desperate or every home will hold its price.
Buyers: Negotiate the Payment, Too
If you’re buying a home in East County, I want to know your comfortable monthly payment before we stretch your purchase price. That means looking at principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA dues together. Then we can compare loan options, available cash and the terms we might negotiate with a seller. Getting approved is one step; feeling comfortable living with the payment is another.
Depending on the property, loan program and seller, we may be able to negotiate credits toward eligible closing costs or a rate buydown. Those choices need a side-by-side comparison, because a lower rate can involve upfront costs, and temporary buydown payments eventually increase. I want you to understand both the initial payment and the payment that follows. A future refinance should be a possibility, not the thing your budget depends on.
Sellers: Make Your Home Easier to Say Yes To
When buyers are payment-sensitive, the financing conversation belongs in your selling strategy. A price reduction may be the right answer, especially if recent comparable sales don’t support the asking price. In other cases, a seller credit could help a qualified buyer overcome closing costs or improve their payment. We should compare those options against your net proceeds before choosing one.
That doesn’t mean throwing money at a listing or promising concessions before we know what’s needed. It means preparing the home well, pricing it against real competition and understanding what is stopping buyers from moving forward. Your equity deserves a thoughtful plan. So does the buyer’s budget.
Let’s Start With What Works for You
I’m not going to tell you to buy just because rates might fall, or sell because a scary headline says a crash is coming. I’d rather look at your numbers, your timing and the choices available today. If there’s a workable plan, I’ll help you understand it. If the payment is too uncomfortable, we’ll be honest about that, too.
Follow me on Instagram at @vallihomes for San Diego housing updates, East County real estate insights and mortgage conversations that connect the headlines to your actual budget. Ready to explore your own numbers? Schedule a conversation with me, and let’s make affordability first.
Valli Lopez | Keys With Valli
Mortgage Loan Officer · NMLS #980530
Sources
- National Association of REALTORS®: September 2026 pending home sales, released October 20, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: October 15, 2026.
- Market update reviewed by Valli Lopez, with charts through October 15, 2026. Treasury yields and mortgage spreads reflect the report’s observation periods, not a live rate quote.